Dear Football Gods

Please, don't let us lose to the Giants. I've had the pleasure of Super Bowl wins. They were dandy. That loss back in 07 really humbled us. I could lose to any other team and say, "wow, its been a great year." But not Eli. Not the Giants.

That is all.

EDIT: The game didn't quite go as planned. But at least the commercials were solid this year.

Tebow a Character Pick?

I have nothing against ethos, and I'm sure, after recent events, Josh McDaniels is looking forward to working with a contentious, diligent, and respectful player. As one of the many talking heads I listened to this morning said: Tebow is never going to say an improper word back to his coach. If you listen to any commentary this morning, then you are going to be fed the rationale that Tebow was picked over "better" quarterbacks because he is a nice guy.

But I would quickly like to suggest that I think Tebow was picked ahead of Clausen and McCoy because he is a dynamic player who, in the hands of the right coach, could flourish in the NFL. His unique skill set translates perfectly into a hybrid/wildcat offense. And remember, too, that Tebow trained under Urban Meyer. Belichick spent a great deal of time with Meyer to learn that offense, and that time directly translated into Tom Brady's success in the shotgun (the Pats use the shotgun more than any other team). Who was the offense coordinator while the Pats were doing all that shotgunning? Oh yeah, it was Josh McDaniels.

Of course, Tebow is a risky pick, and, until very recently, option-inspired offenses have been terrible in the NFL. But I'll admit that I was secretly hoping the Pats drafted Tebow, and I will be rooting for him to succeed in Denver, if only because it will make Mel Kiper (et al) look foolish.

A Not-So-Sophistical Defense for Going for It

First of all, congratulations to the Colts for an amazing second-half. They played better and they won the game. And they don't deserve the criticism that "Belichick handed them the win."

1. How often are coaches criticized for "coaching not to lose"? For being too conservative? Last night was an aggressive call, no doubt. But it was a call to win the game when you had your hands on it. Let's face it, this isn't like the Patriot SB teams that win with defense. When this team beats you, the ball is in Brady's hands.
2. Those who have read Halberstam's excellent Education of a Coach will remember that it has a dedicated discussion of going for it on 4th down. In short, academic statistical analysis supports the idea that coaches should go for it on 4th down every time they have 4th and short. They should go for it on 4th down every time they are across their own 40. Statistically, the possible reward of keeping the football is worth any risk. Essentially, going for it on 4th down isn't a matter of overcoming difficulty on the field as much as overcoming the psychological and cultural perception of going for it on 4th down. Yeah, its a rhetorical thing.
3. The Patriots hadn't put the running back in motion to create an empty backfield all night. Remember that the play in theory worked--Faulk was open and caught the ball beyond the first down marker. However, in practice, he juggled it and lost forward progress. These things happen. But saving the running back quick out (matched up on an inside linebacker, I believe) for when you really need it is the kind of things that the hoodie does. Once again, the human element and the statistical/theoretical element might be in conflict here--but that doesn't mean that going for it wasn't the right decision.
4. As far as Belichick having to apologize to his defense, I think this needs to be revised: the defense has to apologize to the offense. The offense spotted the Colts a 24-7 lead. In the second half of that game, the defense played the roll of butter, Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne the roll of hot knife.
5. Finally, I think Belichick had visions back to the 2006 Playoff game. Remember that the Pats blew a 21-6 halftime lead in that game. Remember, too, that Belichick called the game conservatively in the fourth quarter--I do think that ghost showed up in the 4th quarter last night.

Was I surprised to see the call last night? Not really. Not as someone who has watched Patriot games for the past decade. The Patriots have always played to win the game. Last night, they just came up a foot short when they really needed it. And, oh, by the way, did anyone notice how the defense failed to even make Peyton Manning blink on that final drive? That's why you go for it on 4th down. You play (call) to win the game.

Wait Til Next Year?

As a Boston/New England sports fan, the first decade of the new century went rather well. Perhaps too well. Our cultural ethos is constructed around losing and misfortune. Might it be that things are returning to normal?

This was an odd year for the Red Sox. While the offense struggled mightily, and while the pitching staff failed to live up to the lofty expectations, the Sox still made the playoffs. To lose in a sweep is a bit unexpected; to see Papelbon blow the save seems fitting for a season in which he, and other beloved veterans, struggled.

The Red Sox still have a very good collection of young players. The bloated contract of J.D. Drew will haunt them for at least one more year (two if Drew stays healthy). It will be interesting to see what happens with Jason Varitek and Jason Bay in the off-season. ESPN doesn't have the CERA (catcher's ERA) numbers for Martinez behind the plate, but I am going to guess its not as good as Varitek's 3.87 (since the team ERA on the season is 4.35). It should not be overlooked that Martinez, and not Varitek, was catching yesterday as the Red Sox stellar, hard-throwing bullpen imploded. I was previously concerned about this.

Bay had a roller-coaster season. I imagine he is seeing dollar signs this off-season. The Yankees have a considerable amount of money rolling off the books this year. I still fully expect Carl Crawford to execute the one million dollar buyout on his contract to become a free agent. That will put Crawford, Bay, and Matt Holliday (ouch, that error hurt--I still think his numbers with St. Louis were an aberration--buyer beware with this guy) at the top of a talented group of free agent outfielders, that additionally includes Manny, a resurgent Abreu, Magglio Ordonez (injuries a factor here), and others. Most of the major markets--Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers (bye bye Manny?) will be potential buyers.

I have a feeling that the team will see a major shake-up this off-season: only time will tell if Varitek, Bay, Papelbon, or Mike Lowell returns next season. Papelbon in particular will be interesting to watch. The Red Sox still control him, but they have had difficulty coming to terms the past few seasons--and just barely avoided arbitration last year. I think part of the hesitation here is giving Papelbon, who has a chronic shoulder issue, a high-end long term deal. To avoid arbitration, and make the deal worthwhile for all sides, the contract would likely work out something like 32 million for 4 years (K-Rod got 37 million for 3 as an outright free agent). I had a feeling, when the Sox wouldn't pull the trigger on the Halladay deal, that Bard was being groomed as a future closer. So, as much as I love the glare, I wonder how much longer Papelbon will be in Boston. Please note that my wondering has absolutely nothing to do with his performance yesterday. He lived dangerously at times this season, but is still a top closer. I just think, medically and economically, the Red Sox front office has showed hesitation to lock up Paps as they have locked up Pedroia, Youkilis, and Lester.

As to the Patriots, it is very hard for me to watch Tom Brady right now, if only because he set the bar so high. But his deep ball looks as accurate as JaMarcus Russell's right now. I remember when Joe Montana returned from his elbow injury- though still great, he wasn't Joe Montana. That's how I feel watching Brady right now. Again, time will tell whether, like Donovan McNabb, he is able to recover from this injury or if, like Carson Palmer, Brady never quite returns to the level he was pre-injury.

Ugh

I guess I cannot complain too much. We've had things pretty good in New England for awhile now. You know: fewer confederate flags (future post coming), really good seafood, and a string of championships.

So rather than cry about Brady, I'll enjoy the Red Sox, look forward to the Celtics, and remind myself that this is a "free year" when it comes to the NFL. If we lose this season, then we're no different than any other NFL team: sunk in the water without their starting QB (especially since our starting QB happens to be the reigning MVP).

But oh, if we win...

P.S.- This lowers my faith in humanity by about 4.736 points. Just for anyone keeping score.

Sports Things that Bug Me

These things have been bugging me the past few weeks:

1. Kevin Garnett Shooting Jump Shots. Before I saw him play regularly, I used to think that Garnett was a better player than Tim Duncan. My argument went, if you surrounded Garnett with the talent Duncan worked with, he'd have just as many rings. Well, 12 playoff games later I'm ready to amend this thought. While Garnett is a much better defensive player, I think his lack of college experience hurt his offensive development. He just doesn't play like the physically imposing player he could be. When Duncan gets the ball in the post, he's going to the rim. Garnett is happy to settle for a fade away, or he'll pass it out of the post. Take the ball to the damn hoop. Seriously. Argh.

2. Complaints Regarding Manny's High Five. If I hear one more sports journalist / media personality complain about how all athletes are overpaid and greedy and then bash Ramirez for actually having fun and playing the game like a game I'm going to go something something. Manny enjoys baseball. I enjoy watching Manny play baseball. He among the three best righthanded hitters of his generation (Pujols, A-Rod), and the three of them likely comprise the three best righthanders ever playing together at one time. Is he a space cadet? Yeah, a little. But in an age of self-importance and self-promotion, many is a breathe of fresh air.

3. Obsessive Coverage of 'Spygate'. O.k., I'll probably be a bit of a homer here. But anyone who thinks the Patriots are the only team in professional football to utilize videotape beyond the written letter of the rules: you are crazy. I am not suggesting that every coach uses tape- I would bet 100$ that straight arrow Tony Dungy has never taped a TV program for fear he might be breaking copyright law. The reason Goddell and the NFL wants this to go away: they don't want the equivalent of a steroid controversy haunting their sport. Spying has been a part of football since the early 60's, when Hank Stram thought every team was sending agents to observe practices. Don't get me wrong: spying is against the rules, the Pats deserved to be punished. But please don't insinuate that the Pats are the only ones abusing the film room.

4. NCAA rules against playoff but adds two additional bowl games combined with OJ Mayo takes money. Maybe OJ didn't take money (innocent until proven guilty), but he should have. If the NCAA and USC are marketing Mayo to get more money, then he should be getting paid. Millions? No. But players should be able to accept up to 40,000 dollars (completely arbitrary number) from third parties every year. I am not suggesting teams or the NCAA pay athletes. But holding to the mantra of strict amateurism amounts to an unfair indentured service in an age when schools are using their athletic programs to build dorms, labs, and parking garages. Again: if the teams and league makes profit from the players, then the players should be able to make profit from the players. On a related point: wtf. wtf. wtf. Just give us one more bowl game. It will not diminish the ratings or prestige of the other bowls. Take the five top bowls- make one of them the "championship game." I realize that games are stretched out one a night to increase ratings. Fine. Start them a bit earlier, play two on one night, and you can have your championship game without adding an extra time to the schedule.

I haven't felt this miserable...

...since my first dog died when I was eight years old. Seriously. And to make matters worse, I wasn't even able to watch the game (out for dinner on a campus visit).

Good month for Boston

My teams certainly know how to deliver a birthday present (although the Pats were a bit late...)

Red Sox

Besides hitting four consecutive homeruns on my birthday, the Sox dominated the Yanks so far this year. And I know the only thing more April-Rod than April-Rod is the Red Sox, but I am (as always) carefully optimistic. Why? The pitching staff. Last year, Schilling was inconsistent, Beckett was... bad, and there really wasn't much depth beyond those two other than steady Timmy. Love TIMM--EH!

This year, Schilling is consistently placing the fastball, Beckett is throwing more pitches for strikes (less reliant on his fastball), Dice-K shows promise (needs to throw more strikes when ahead in the count--challenge hitters with his screwball, slider and gyroball rather than trying to get them to chase fastballs), Timmy is TIMM-EH, and John Lester should be in the rotation by June 1st. The bullpen is perhaps the best (or at least the most underrated) in baseball (Okijima, Timlin, Donnelly, not to mention that Papelbon guy. He's o.k.). The Red Sox don't have to win games 8-7 this year. Now they can win them 8-4. Their tied for the best record in baseball and Manny Ramirez is hitting below the mendoza line. Anyone who thinks Manny will be hitting below .250 by the all-star break, please, please, please tell me you are willing to bet a large sum of money. Please

Pats

Besides Sox nation, the Pats are showing that their is a method to their madness--that just because you don't give money to some free agents doesn't mean you don't give money to any free agent. I'll trade Branch and Givens for Thomas and Stalllworth any day (perhaps others wouldn't--but if you look at the money, that's essentially how the moves work out). The Pats, as exhibited with their 49ers trade, plan for tomorrow. The idea is to build a franchise, not a team. They are the anti-thesis of the Redskins and the early-ought Titans, and I would say the plan is working. Could the Pats have used a running back this season? Sure. But now they'll pick up a veteran, and still get the 49ers first-round pick next year. And chances are the 49ers will struggle without Norv Turner--Alex Smith has to prove that he can learn a new system and maintain progress without one of the best offensive co-ordinators in the history of the game. Good luck.

Finally, a few people have emailed me regarding the receiver formerly known as Randy Moss. He will know be known as "one of Tom Brady's options." And he will like it. Remember when Corey Dillion was a problem child? When the Bengals made an "addition by subtraction." Yeah, that was awesome. Dillion cost us a second round pick, so there was something at stake there. Moss? A fourth rounder? Act up, get cut. They've even worked that into his contract restructuring (which went quickly and without fuss). Like Dillion, Moss has been stuck on terrible teams, blamed for problems that are far beyond his reach, and played with a string of quarterbacks and offensive systems below NFL standards. He does have more character issues than Dillion, that I'll admit.

But, on the Patriots, he'll win. If he and Stallworth can learn the extremely complicated passing routes employed by the Pats (and there's a string of compitent wideouts who can't--see Doug Gabriel for the latest victim), then they will create incredibly difficult matchup problems for any team. Add to that a couple of underneath threats--Welker, Washington, Caldwell, Gaffney, and hopefully Brown (who, respectively, rock as 4-5-6 receivers rather than as 1-2-3) and the Pats offensive looks lethal. Oh, the five-wide out set. Oh, add to the mix Ben Watson. Oh, the matchups. Can't wait for Madden 08.